This year's CMA Awards show promises to be an interesting one, and TICM is here to prepare you once again with our annual picks and predictions!
ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Garth Brooks
Eric Church
Chris Stapleton
Carrie Underwood – Zackary Kephart, Markus Meyer
Keith Urban
Should win:
Garth Brooks
Eric Church – Zackary Kephart (tie), Markus Meyer
Chris Stapleton
Carrie Underwood – Zackary Kephart (tie)
Keith Urban
Zackary Kephart: Keith Urban somehow won this last year, but considering this is a touring award, it’s hard not to see how either Carrie Underwood or Eric Church are more deserving here. Granted, that speaks to the groundswell of their respective fan bases that they’re willing to fight and declare these artists have had their “moments,” and it’s hard to disagree. I have a bad feeling Urban might repeat his win considering these award shows like to be repetitive and predictable, but considering they’re making a slight effort to include stronger female representation this year (lip service or not), I could see Underwood finally getting her due here.
Markus Meyer: This should be an Underwood v. Church showdown, and I think that's what will happen, with Church ultimately winning. That said, don't write off Garth or Urban, the two most inexplicably over-recognized artists of the past several years.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Thomas Rhett – Center Point Road
Carrie Underwood – Cry Pretty
Dan + Shay – Dan + Shay
Eric Church – Desperate Man - ZK, MM
Maren Morris – GIRL
Should win:
Thomas Rhett – Center Point Road
Carrie Underwood – Cry Pretty
Dan + Shay – Dan + Shay
Eric Church – Desperate Man - ZK, MM
Maren Morris – GIRL
ZK: This category usually lacks in quality, and somehow they’ve set the bar even lower this year. Forget the fact that Reba McEntire or George Strait dropped great albums in their post-radio careers or that the Pistol Annies dropped one of the most critically acclaimed albums of last year – let’s just award nepotism and bland, forgettable pop music masquerading as country. Granted, I’m not about to defend Eric Church as country either, and Desperate Man is far from his best work. But at least it’s the one album here that doesn’t outright suck. Church is usually a favorite for this category, so hopefully that’s the case this year.
MM: A remarkably bad slate of candidates. This is my least favorite Church album and yet it's still miles better than everything else nominated here. Underwood's is pretty average and the other three are straight pop. Tragic category.
NEW ARTIST OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Cody Johnson
Ashley McBryde - MM
Midland
Carly Pearce
Morgan Wallen - ZK
Should win:
Cody Johnson
Ashley McBryde - ZK, MM
Midland
Carly Pearce
Morgan Wallen
ZK: Aside from Morgan Wallen, this is probably one of the best fields of new entrants in years. Granted, none of these names really scan as “new” aside from Ashley McBryde - Cody Johnson is the most obvious example, and Midland and Carly Pearce released their debut albums over two years ago. Still, I have no complaints here, though the fact that Wallen is the most commercially viable artist here with the hits and marketing to boot, no one else really has a chance. But really, there’s an unwritten law somewhere out there that says McBryde should win every award she’s nominated for in any instance.
MM: This one is actually pretty strong. Even Wallen is far from the worst offender at radio. My gut says McBryde takes it, though I could easily see Wallen or Midland winning.
SINGLE OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Dierks Bentley and Brothers Osborne - “Burning Man”
Maren Morris - “Girl”
Blake Shelton - “God’s Country” - ZK, MM
Chris Stapleton - “Millionaire”
Dan + Shay - “Speechless”
Should win:
Dierks Bentley and Brothers Osborne - “Burning Man” - ZK, MM
Maren Morris - “Girl”
Blake Shelton - “God’s Country”
Chris Stapleton - “Millionaire”
Dan + Shay - “Speechless”
ZK: I’ll live the rest of my life trying to forget that “Hell Right” exists, but if I’m being completely fair to Blake Shelton, “God’s Country” totally deserves this award – and there’s no question that will happen given its success. Including “Burning Man” is a nice touch, but Dierks Bentley is always a dark horse candidate at best, sadly. “Millionaire” is also good, but would be not be a fitting candidate for this award. “Girl” is here just for female representation and “Speechless” … wait, this was actually a hit?!?
MM: "Burning Man" is my favorite of the bunch (and also maybe the least likely winner), though "God's Country" would be a totally worthy victor here, in terms of both quality and impact. Stapleton and Morris feel like filler here, but "Speechless" could very well take this given its commercial heft. Still, this will likely be Shelton's, and it will be his most deserved win in years.
SONG OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Luke Combs - “Beautiful Crazy” - ZK, MM
Maren Morris - “Girl”
Blake Shelton - “God’s Country”
Kacey Musgraves - “Rainbow”
Dan + Shay - “Tequila”
Should win:
Luke Combs - “Beautiful Crazy”
Maren Morris - “Girl”
Blake Shelton - “God’s Country”
Kacey Musgraves - “Rainbow” - ZK, MM
Dan + Shay - “Tequila”
ZK: This certainly isn’t the worst field in the world, though it does include some oddball choices, as always. Still, this category seems more loaded with pure hits than previous years. Of course, when I say “hit,” I’m referring to general public reaction, not to how Kacey Musgraves’s gorgeous “Rainbow” only peaked inside the top 40 at radio. But I wouldn’t be mad at “God’s Country” either considering it is quite good, though otherwise, Luke Combs could win this, but he has better songs. Anything but “Girl” or “Tequila” is a win I suppose.
MM: It's far from the best of the field, but I have a hard time seeing "Beautiful Crazy" getting completely passed over, so I think it wins. However, "Rainbow" is a very conceivable and much stronger choice, while "God's Country" and "Tequila" are both repsectable compositions with a chance. It's fairly wide open and honestly not a horrible group to pick from.
FEMALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Kelsea Ballerini
Miranda Lambert
Maren Morris
Kacey Musgraves
Carrie Underwood - ZK, MM
Should win:
Kelsea Ballerini
Miranda Lambert
Maren Morris
Kacey Musgraves - MM
Carrie Underwood – ZK
ZK: Considering Carrie Underwood is up for Entertainer of the Year, this award should be a lock, though voters could also be fetching for new blood by picking Maren Morris. In terms of natural talent, this is usually a justifiable award for Underwood to win, so I don’t have much to say here other than that.
MM: Logically Carrie's EOTY nom would make her a heavy frontrunner but maybe they go a different direction here? Kacey's been a great ambassador for the genre this period and Morris is the most nominated of the night, so you can't write them off. Still, I think Underwood takes this, but I'm not 100% confident in saying that.
MALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Dierks Bentley
Luke Combs - ZK, MM
Thomas Rhett
Chris Stapleton
Keith Urban
Should win:
Dierks Bentley
Luke Combs – ZK (tie), MM
Thomas Rhett
Chris Stapleton – ZK (tie)
Keith Urban
ZK: Again, there isn’t much to say here – Luke Combs is far and away the biggest country artist right now, so I can’t see how this award will go to anyone else. If we have to defy logic, though, let’s at least not go for Thomas Rhett.
MM: I mean maybe Stapleton or Rhett win, but I have a very hard time seeing this go to anyone but Combs, and it will be very well deserved.
VOCAL GROUP OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Midland - ZK
Old Dominion - MM
Zac Brown Band
Should win:
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Midland - ZK, MM
Old Dominion
Zac Brown Band
ZK: It’s between Midland and Old Dominion, and really, it just comes down to voters caring more about which band actually has the public’s attention and which band is just soaking up radio hits. I’m going to lean away from my usual pessimism and have faith, at least for once.
MM: No one really seems to care about any of country music's groups that much these days but Old Dominion is the fallback winner these days, so I think they pull it off. Still, a Midland upset is possible (and preferable in my mind).
VOCAL DUO OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Brooks & Dunn
Brothers Osborne - ZK, MM
Dan + Shay
Florida Georgia Line
Maddie and Tae
Should win:
Brooks & Dunn - MM
Brothers Osborne
Dan + Shay – ZK (I mean, only if I’m being 100% unbiased and honest … )
Florida Georgia Line
Maddie and Tae
ZK: This, as well as Group of the Year, usually provide the most laughs out of any other categories. I mean, it’s nice to see Brooks & Dunn here, but who are they replacing? Sugarland? Big & Rich? Anyway, as much as I naturally like the Brothers Osborne more than any other duo here outside of B&D and Maddie and Tae (who all don’t have a shot anyway, let’s be honest), Dan + Shay were truthfully the most commercially relevant artists this year.
MM: I don't know, the CMAs compeltely snubbed Dan + Shay last year and they seem to like the Bros so I think they take it, though it's definitely a two horse race (neither of which is FGL, which is a topic for another day but is kind of remarkable). Maddie & Tae and Brooks & Dunn made the best music of the period so I'll give the latter my vote cause I think it'd be cool if they won (though the Maddie & Tae EP is lovely).
MUSICAL EVENT OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Maren Morris and Brothers Osborne - “All My Favorite People”
Luke Combs and Brooks & Dunn - “Brand New Man”
Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton - “Dive Bar”
Lil Nas X & Billy Ray Cyrus - “Old Town Road (Remix)” - ZK, MM
Brantley Gilbert and Lindsay Ell - “What Happens In A Small Town”
Should win:
Maren Morris and Brothers Osborne - “All My Favorite People”
Luke Combs and Brooks & Dunn - “Brand New Man”
Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton - “Dive Bar”
Lil Nas X & Billy Ray Cyrus - “Old Town Road (Remix)”
Brantley Gilbert and Lindsay Ell - “What Happens In A Small Town” - MM
ZK: This is a bizarre group of songs in general this year, enough to where I can’t in good faith personally recommend any of them. But we all know the “bull ridin’ and boobies” song will take this award anyway.
MM: I don't think there's any chance they pass up an "Old Town Road" victory here. Weird group, but I dig the Gilbert/Ell track quite a bit.
MUSICIAN OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Jenee Fleenor
Paul Franklin
Mac McAnally - ZK
Illya Toshinsky
Derek Wells
Should win:
Jenee Fleenor - ZK
Paul Franklin
Mac McAnally
Illya Toshinsky
Derek Wells
ZK: I mean, let’s be honest, Mac McAnally wins this by default every year. But still, it’s absolutely cool to see Jenee Fleenor grab a nomination slot here. Fiddle power!
Will win:
Garth Brooks
Eric Church
Chris Stapleton
Carrie Underwood – Zackary Kephart, Markus Meyer
Keith Urban
Should win:
Garth Brooks
Eric Church – Zackary Kephart (tie), Markus Meyer
Chris Stapleton
Carrie Underwood – Zackary Kephart (tie)
Keith Urban
Zackary Kephart: Keith Urban somehow won this last year, but considering this is a touring award, it’s hard not to see how either Carrie Underwood or Eric Church are more deserving here. Granted, that speaks to the groundswell of their respective fan bases that they’re willing to fight and declare these artists have had their “moments,” and it’s hard to disagree. I have a bad feeling Urban might repeat his win considering these award shows like to be repetitive and predictable, but considering they’re making a slight effort to include stronger female representation this year (lip service or not), I could see Underwood finally getting her due here.
Markus Meyer: This should be an Underwood v. Church showdown, and I think that's what will happen, with Church ultimately winning. That said, don't write off Garth or Urban, the two most inexplicably over-recognized artists of the past several years.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Thomas Rhett – Center Point Road
Carrie Underwood – Cry Pretty
Dan + Shay – Dan + Shay
Eric Church – Desperate Man - ZK, MM
Maren Morris – GIRL
Should win:
Thomas Rhett – Center Point Road
Carrie Underwood – Cry Pretty
Dan + Shay – Dan + Shay
Eric Church – Desperate Man - ZK, MM
Maren Morris – GIRL
ZK: This category usually lacks in quality, and somehow they’ve set the bar even lower this year. Forget the fact that Reba McEntire or George Strait dropped great albums in their post-radio careers or that the Pistol Annies dropped one of the most critically acclaimed albums of last year – let’s just award nepotism and bland, forgettable pop music masquerading as country. Granted, I’m not about to defend Eric Church as country either, and Desperate Man is far from his best work. But at least it’s the one album here that doesn’t outright suck. Church is usually a favorite for this category, so hopefully that’s the case this year.
MM: A remarkably bad slate of candidates. This is my least favorite Church album and yet it's still miles better than everything else nominated here. Underwood's is pretty average and the other three are straight pop. Tragic category.
NEW ARTIST OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Cody Johnson
Ashley McBryde - MM
Midland
Carly Pearce
Morgan Wallen - ZK
Should win:
Cody Johnson
Ashley McBryde - ZK, MM
Midland
Carly Pearce
Morgan Wallen
ZK: Aside from Morgan Wallen, this is probably one of the best fields of new entrants in years. Granted, none of these names really scan as “new” aside from Ashley McBryde - Cody Johnson is the most obvious example, and Midland and Carly Pearce released their debut albums over two years ago. Still, I have no complaints here, though the fact that Wallen is the most commercially viable artist here with the hits and marketing to boot, no one else really has a chance. But really, there’s an unwritten law somewhere out there that says McBryde should win every award she’s nominated for in any instance.
MM: This one is actually pretty strong. Even Wallen is far from the worst offender at radio. My gut says McBryde takes it, though I could easily see Wallen or Midland winning.
SINGLE OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Dierks Bentley and Brothers Osborne - “Burning Man”
Maren Morris - “Girl”
Blake Shelton - “God’s Country” - ZK, MM
Chris Stapleton - “Millionaire”
Dan + Shay - “Speechless”
Should win:
Dierks Bentley and Brothers Osborne - “Burning Man” - ZK, MM
Maren Morris - “Girl”
Blake Shelton - “God’s Country”
Chris Stapleton - “Millionaire”
Dan + Shay - “Speechless”
ZK: I’ll live the rest of my life trying to forget that “Hell Right” exists, but if I’m being completely fair to Blake Shelton, “God’s Country” totally deserves this award – and there’s no question that will happen given its success. Including “Burning Man” is a nice touch, but Dierks Bentley is always a dark horse candidate at best, sadly. “Millionaire” is also good, but would be not be a fitting candidate for this award. “Girl” is here just for female representation and “Speechless” … wait, this was actually a hit?!?
MM: "Burning Man" is my favorite of the bunch (and also maybe the least likely winner), though "God's Country" would be a totally worthy victor here, in terms of both quality and impact. Stapleton and Morris feel like filler here, but "Speechless" could very well take this given its commercial heft. Still, this will likely be Shelton's, and it will be his most deserved win in years.
SONG OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Luke Combs - “Beautiful Crazy” - ZK, MM
Maren Morris - “Girl”
Blake Shelton - “God’s Country”
Kacey Musgraves - “Rainbow”
Dan + Shay - “Tequila”
Should win:
Luke Combs - “Beautiful Crazy”
Maren Morris - “Girl”
Blake Shelton - “God’s Country”
Kacey Musgraves - “Rainbow” - ZK, MM
Dan + Shay - “Tequila”
ZK: This certainly isn’t the worst field in the world, though it does include some oddball choices, as always. Still, this category seems more loaded with pure hits than previous years. Of course, when I say “hit,” I’m referring to general public reaction, not to how Kacey Musgraves’s gorgeous “Rainbow” only peaked inside the top 40 at radio. But I wouldn’t be mad at “God’s Country” either considering it is quite good, though otherwise, Luke Combs could win this, but he has better songs. Anything but “Girl” or “Tequila” is a win I suppose.
MM: It's far from the best of the field, but I have a hard time seeing "Beautiful Crazy" getting completely passed over, so I think it wins. However, "Rainbow" is a very conceivable and much stronger choice, while "God's Country" and "Tequila" are both repsectable compositions with a chance. It's fairly wide open and honestly not a horrible group to pick from.
FEMALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Kelsea Ballerini
Miranda Lambert
Maren Morris
Kacey Musgraves
Carrie Underwood - ZK, MM
Should win:
Kelsea Ballerini
Miranda Lambert
Maren Morris
Kacey Musgraves - MM
Carrie Underwood – ZK
ZK: Considering Carrie Underwood is up for Entertainer of the Year, this award should be a lock, though voters could also be fetching for new blood by picking Maren Morris. In terms of natural talent, this is usually a justifiable award for Underwood to win, so I don’t have much to say here other than that.
MM: Logically Carrie's EOTY nom would make her a heavy frontrunner but maybe they go a different direction here? Kacey's been a great ambassador for the genre this period and Morris is the most nominated of the night, so you can't write them off. Still, I think Underwood takes this, but I'm not 100% confident in saying that.
MALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Dierks Bentley
Luke Combs - ZK, MM
Thomas Rhett
Chris Stapleton
Keith Urban
Should win:
Dierks Bentley
Luke Combs – ZK (tie), MM
Thomas Rhett
Chris Stapleton – ZK (tie)
Keith Urban
ZK: Again, there isn’t much to say here – Luke Combs is far and away the biggest country artist right now, so I can’t see how this award will go to anyone else. If we have to defy logic, though, let’s at least not go for Thomas Rhett.
MM: I mean maybe Stapleton or Rhett win, but I have a very hard time seeing this go to anyone but Combs, and it will be very well deserved.
VOCAL GROUP OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Midland - ZK
Old Dominion - MM
Zac Brown Band
Should win:
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Midland - ZK, MM
Old Dominion
Zac Brown Band
ZK: It’s between Midland and Old Dominion, and really, it just comes down to voters caring more about which band actually has the public’s attention and which band is just soaking up radio hits. I’m going to lean away from my usual pessimism and have faith, at least for once.
MM: No one really seems to care about any of country music's groups that much these days but Old Dominion is the fallback winner these days, so I think they pull it off. Still, a Midland upset is possible (and preferable in my mind).
VOCAL DUO OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Brooks & Dunn
Brothers Osborne - ZK, MM
Dan + Shay
Florida Georgia Line
Maddie and Tae
Should win:
Brooks & Dunn - MM
Brothers Osborne
Dan + Shay – ZK (I mean, only if I’m being 100% unbiased and honest … )
Florida Georgia Line
Maddie and Tae
ZK: This, as well as Group of the Year, usually provide the most laughs out of any other categories. I mean, it’s nice to see Brooks & Dunn here, but who are they replacing? Sugarland? Big & Rich? Anyway, as much as I naturally like the Brothers Osborne more than any other duo here outside of B&D and Maddie and Tae (who all don’t have a shot anyway, let’s be honest), Dan + Shay were truthfully the most commercially relevant artists this year.
MM: I don't know, the CMAs compeltely snubbed Dan + Shay last year and they seem to like the Bros so I think they take it, though it's definitely a two horse race (neither of which is FGL, which is a topic for another day but is kind of remarkable). Maddie & Tae and Brooks & Dunn made the best music of the period so I'll give the latter my vote cause I think it'd be cool if they won (though the Maddie & Tae EP is lovely).
MUSICAL EVENT OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Maren Morris and Brothers Osborne - “All My Favorite People”
Luke Combs and Brooks & Dunn - “Brand New Man”
Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton - “Dive Bar”
Lil Nas X & Billy Ray Cyrus - “Old Town Road (Remix)” - ZK, MM
Brantley Gilbert and Lindsay Ell - “What Happens In A Small Town”
Should win:
Maren Morris and Brothers Osborne - “All My Favorite People”
Luke Combs and Brooks & Dunn - “Brand New Man”
Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton - “Dive Bar”
Lil Nas X & Billy Ray Cyrus - “Old Town Road (Remix)”
Brantley Gilbert and Lindsay Ell - “What Happens In A Small Town” - MM
ZK: This is a bizarre group of songs in general this year, enough to where I can’t in good faith personally recommend any of them. But we all know the “bull ridin’ and boobies” song will take this award anyway.
MM: I don't think there's any chance they pass up an "Old Town Road" victory here. Weird group, but I dig the Gilbert/Ell track quite a bit.
MUSICIAN OF THE YEAR
Will win:
Jenee Fleenor
Paul Franklin
Mac McAnally - ZK
Illya Toshinsky
Derek Wells
Should win:
Jenee Fleenor - ZK
Paul Franklin
Mac McAnally
Illya Toshinsky
Derek Wells
ZK: I mean, let’s be honest, Mac McAnally wins this by default every year. But still, it’s absolutely cool to see Jenee Fleenor grab a nomination slot here. Fiddle power!
